Mild November hints at what’s to come in La Niña winter

November continued the trend of warm weather set in August, September, and October. At least the trees have begun to turn. One of the few blessings of a dry year is the spectacular coloring of Red Maple, Pin Oak, Sweet Gum and Ash trees across North Texas.

By the numbers, November was exceptionally warmer than normal. The average high so far this month has been 73, six degrees warmer than the norm of 67. The average low was 47, four degrees warmer than the climate norm of 43. The warmest high temperature was 80 on November 4 and again November 24th. The coldest temperature was a light freeze of 31 on November 21st. North Texas felt a routine cold front on Monday the 25^th, while a reinforcing front, organizing in Canada, was due to reach North Texas just before Thanksgiving. Flirting with light freezing weather is a lot easier on plants and landscapes than when the first freeze is a hard freeze.

Rainfall of over 4 inches looked pretty good on paper, but much of North Texas still looks and feels like a drought. Denton recorded over 2 inches from October 31^st through the first few days of the month. 1.13” fell on the 7^th and 8^th.  Another 1.32” was recorded over the 17^th and 18^th, adding up to 4.53” which is 2.3” above normal for the month. So far this year, Denton Enterprise has recorded 35.68” of rain. The U.S. Drought Monitor puts Denton somewhere between “Abnormally Dry” and “Moderate Drought.”

Looking ahead to December, the Climate Prediction Center forecasts slightly warmer and drier-than-normal weather through the last month of the year. That’s consistent with the expected development of a La Nina (cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific). During a La Nina, the polar jet stream is displaced farther north, which tends to bring cold air masses down into Missouri and Arkansas, rather than Kansas and Oklahoma.

While La Nina winters can be mild, we can still count on a hard freeze every winter, but extreme cold, such as temperatures in the teens and single digits may stay northeast of Texas. Every winter, we get two or three “snow days,” which can mean anything from a trace to a school-closing, traffic-crippling ice storm. Meteorologist Rick Mitchell of NBC 5 noted that there has never been a winter in DFW without at least a trace of snow, as far back as our records go to 1898.

Take advantage of the mild weather to disconnect garden hoses, insulate outdoor faucets and pipes and prepare for whatever winter has in store for us.