If you thought September was hot and dry, October says, “Hold my corndog.” As of press time (Oct. 27th), no rain had been recorded at Denton Enterprise Airport for 32 consecutive days, one of the longest stretches of rain-free weather coincident with the fall run of the State Fair of Texas.
The 2015 State Fair was part of a 32-day rain-free period. The 1975 State Fair took place in a 41-day dry spell, while the 1924 State Fair of Texas ran during a 48-day drought. (Thanks to Paul Ruekberg, who keeps climate records for “NewsWatch Dallas.”)
While lawns and landscapes across North Texas are looking grim, the forecast for early November is looking up.
One of the driest Octobers on record in North Texas was also one of the warmest. October’s average high (as of 10/27) was 85.7, which was 6 degrees warmer than the monthly average high of 79.4. Denton had at least 6 days at or above 90 degrees; hottest being October 13th which got to 95. The coolest morning was October 17th at 49, but Denton had at least four overnight lows at or above 70. The average low of 65.5 was 7 degrees above normal.
October’s nil rainfall total was over 4 inches below normal. Denton’s cumulative rainfall through Oct. 27 was 30.94” which puts us about 2 inches below normal for this point in the year. Denton had a rainy spring, but the drought occurred during some of the hottest months of the year. July’s rainfall of .78”, was followed by just .03” in August and only 1.71” in September and none so far in October. That’s just 2.52” of rainfall since the end of June.
The late summer drought could be connected to changes in ocean currents and temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Roughly 60% of the time, an El Nino (warmer than normal ocean temperatures during the fall) produces stronger and more frequent storm systems riding the Subtropical Pacific jet stream across northern Mexico into Texas. At least one October in the early 1980’s resulted in 13 inches of rain. Meanwhile, a La Nina (cooler than normal ocean temperatures) tends to produce fewer storm systems, which allow strong high-pressure zones to build in the desert southwest and expand into Texas, killing rainfall and chasing cold fronts away. The biggest problem with the timing of this year’s drought is the persistent risk of wind-driven grass fires across Texas.
Summer can’t hold on forever, though. A passing upper-level disturbance around Oct. 29th should induce a surface low northwest of DFW, which will draw Gulf moisture northward to collide with a slow-moving cold front bringing showers and storms. A similar scenario could produce another round of scattered rains during the first few days of November.
I hope your roof got fixed in time. (Mine didn’t).
Brad Barton is Chief Meteorologist of WBAP 820 and 570 KLIF. You can follow Brad on Twitter @BradBartonDFW / @WBAP 24/7 News.
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