Barton: Dry conditions expected to continue as La Niña looms

September kept pace with the hot, dry weather of August. To any newcomers to North Texas, October is the month our seasons finally begin to change, but our leaf fall doesn’t really begin until November.

The average high in September was 89.8, which was 1.4 degrees above the normal high of 88.4. The average low was 66, which was 1.2 degrees above the norm of 64.8. Our hottest days were September 19th and 20th, both of which touched 99. September had at least 13 days at or above 90 degrees.

The coolest high was a welcome 78 on the 23rd. September also gave us at least six mornings in the 50’s. The coolest was September 10th at 51.

September rainfall was sparse and spotty, following August’s rainfall of only .23”. Showers and storms brought not-so-welcome rains around the Labor Day holiday. Over an inch (1.03”) fell over September 3rd and 4th. Rain was also recorded on the 6th (.06”), and .61” fell over the 22nd and 23rd. Total rainfall for September was 1.71” which was .77” short of the norm for at 2.48 inches. So far this year, Denton Enterprise Airport has recorded 30.94 inches of rain, still well above normal. Severe weather missed our corner of Denton County in September.

The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a “short” La Nina in the months ahead. Cooler ocean temperatures generally slow the development of low-pressure systems north of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. For North Texas, that can mean continued drought from August and September into October. Accordingly, the extended forecast for October is for near-normal temperatures but below-normal rainfall.

That doesn’t mean we won’t see any severe weather. October is the start of our second severe weather season in North Texas. Right now, forecast models suggest no change in hot and dry weather through October 10th. Beyond that, there are hints of precipitation and a cold (or “not-so-warm”) front reaching North Texas by the middle of the October.

Brad Barton is Chief Meteorologist of WBAP 820 and 570 KLIF. You can follow Brad on Twitter @BradBartonDFW and @WBAP 24/7 News.